multi-leg arbitrage on Kalshi.
A parlay pays $1 only if every leg lands. Buy it, then buy the opposite side of each leg, and the worst case is still $1. If that costs under $1 after fees, the difference is risk-free regardless of how correlated the legs are.
Fees are the whole game. Kalshi charges ceil(0.07 x C x P x (1-P)), which peaks at 50c, exactly where parlays trade. Three mid-priced legs cost about 3c per contract to hedge, so a 2c gap is a loss.
MVE parlays publish their legs as structured data and price directly. Hand-listed ones like KXPROGSWEEP describe them in prose, so recovering the legs takes a model, which proposes the mapping while the pricing stays deterministic.
Constraints looks at mutually exclusive events instead of parlays. At most one leg can pay, so selling every leg for more than $1 is risk-free. No view on the subject required.